Azara Blog: Yet another global warming study

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Date published: 2006/08/15

The BBC says:

Rising temperatures will increase the risk of forest fires, droughts and flooding over the next two centuries, UK climate scientists have warned.

Even if harmful emissions were cut now, many parts of the world would face a greater risk of natural disasters, a team from Bristol University said.

The projections are based on data from more than 50 climate models looking at the impact of greenhouse gas emissions.

The study appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers gathered results from 52 computer simulations to calculate the risks from climate-induced changes to the world's key ecosystems.
Richard Betts, manager of Climate Impacts at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, welcomed the findings.

"This makes an important new contribution to the debate on the effects of climate change," he said.

"We already knew that we cannot rely on just one model, as different models give different answers.
"Of course it is risky to make these projections when models are continuously being changed, but we do have to make decisions on climate change now so if we wait for the perfect model we will be too late.

"The models give the best encapsulation of current understanding of the climate system, and are the only way of assessing physically plausible futures."

Nothing really that new here. And as briefly noted, it's probably already too late to stop many of the consequences that are discussed. On the other hand, if these very same scientists had the same climate models in 1800, would any of them had predicted anywhere near what the situation was like today? Absolutely not. And fortunately for these scientists, they and their predictions will be long forgotten in 2200.

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