Azara Blog: Another prediction that sea levels could rise by more than a meter by 2100

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Date published: 2008/04/15

The BBC says:

Sea levels could rise by up to one-and-a-half metres by the end of this century, according to a new scientific analysis.

This is substantially more than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast in last year's landmark assessment of climate science.

Sea level rise of this magnitude would have major impacts on low-lying countries such as Bangladesh.
The new analysis comes from a UK/Finnish team which has built a computer model linking temperatures to sea levels for the last two millennia.

"For the past 2,000 years, the [global average] sea level was very stable, it only varied by about 20cm," said Svetlana Jevrejeva from the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), near Liverpool, UK.

"But by the end of the century, we predict it will rise by between 0.8m and 1.5m.
Last year, German researcher Stefan Rahmstorf used different methodology but reached a similar conclusion to Dr Jevrejeva's group, projecting a sea level rise of between 0.5m and 1.4m by 2100.

It's not clear why the BBC gives Bangladesh a special mention, since a sea level rise of 1.5m would have a "major" impact on lots of countries, including the UK.

On the serious point, it will be interesting to see if this kind of forecast becomes the scientific consensus, because if it's true the world had better figure out where to move lots of people.

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