Date published: 2007/05/04
The BBC says:
The growth in greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed at reasonable cost, experts at a major UN climate change conference in Bangkok have agreed.
Boosting renewable energy, reducing deforestation and improving energy efficiency can all help, they said.
This is the third report this year from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and aims to set out the costs and benefits of various policies.
IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri said the report was "stunning".
"Human society as a whole has to look for changes in consumption patterns," he told reporters at a news conference in the Thai capital.
The report suggests that if major climate impacts are to be avoided, global emissions should peak and begin declining within one or two decades.
Greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 70% since 1970, and will rise by between 25% and 90% over the next 25 years under "business as usual".
That rise will mainly be caused by an expansion in the use of fossil fuels, which are set to continue as the world's dominant energy source.
"If we continue to do what we are doing now, we are in deep trouble," observed Ogunlade Davidson, a senior author on the report.
...
The report assesses the likely costs to the global economy of stabilising greenhouse gases at various concentrations in the atmosphere.Stabilisation at reasonable cost is possible, it concludes, commenting: "There is considerable economic potential for the mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades, that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels."
The sharpest cuts, keeping greenhouse gas concentrations to levels equivalent to between 445 and 535 parts per million of carbon dioxide, might cost anything up to 3% of global GDP by 2030, while milder curbs could even enhance growth.
The current atmospheric concentrations are equivalent to about 425 parts per million of CO2.
Assessing the impacts of a given concentration is not an exact science, but many researchers believe that keeping concentrations below about 450ppm CO2-eq is necessary if the average global temperature rise is to be kept below 2C, and major impacts avoided.
The IPCC suggests that concentrations between 445ppm and 490ppm would keep the temperature rise to 2.0-2.8C. European Union policy is to avoid a rise greater than 2C.
Nothing new here. And the proof is in the pudding. This is only hot air. And it is a bit rich of Pachauri to talk about "changes in consumption patterns". Let the ruling elite change their "consumption patterns", before trying to screw the ordinary people of the world. The ruling elite are responsible for far, far more emissions than anyone else.
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